“一带一路”对国际贸易的潜在影响

爱丽莎【意大利】

经济学副教授/意大利国际政治研究所（ISPI）高级研究员

“一带一路”倡议，是指习近平主席于2013年提出的。“一带一路”致力于在中国古代丝绸之路的基础之上，分别打通海陆两条国际化经济带，并在沿线构建互通互联网络，以此缓解跨境贸易中存在的诸多瓶颈。海陆两条经济带均以中国国内多个区域为起点，横穿中亚、南亚，并最终抵达欧洲。

“一带一路”的前身为中国古代丝绸贸易的交通道路（包括海路陆路两条），最早可以追溯到汉代（公元前206年至公元后220年）。直到十九世纪中期，德国地质学家斐迪南·冯·李希霍芬男爵才将这两条通路命名为“丝绸之路”，这一名称随后在20世纪90年代末中国政府开展的“走出去”战略中得以沿用。古代丝绸之路包括陆上通路和海上通路，两者均以中国和欧洲为起点和终点，途经南方走廊、伊朗、土耳其，最终将西安与罗马连接在一起。而“一带一路”则途经中亚、俄罗斯及东欧，分别从欧洲南部和北部穿过，最终抵达北欧主要港口鹿特丹，辐射地域远比古代丝绸之路广阔。此外，古代丝绸之路的形成主要受到中国及其伙伴国的贸易活动影响，并无计划性可言。相比之下，“一带一路”则是由中国政府设计的全面的国家发展战略，对国际发展具有重大影响。

稳固与重要伙伴国之间的商业关系和商业交流，向来是国际关系中的主要目标，因此，在“一带一路”倡议的启迪下，全世界范围内的商界、政界、学术界纷纷就该战略对国际政治经济可能造成的影响展开了热烈的讨论。尽管在该倡议中，贸易始终处于关键性的支柱地位，但“一带一路”并非仅仅是复兴古代欧亚联系的一种手段。它更是一项宏伟的工程，具有更深远的意义，将对亚欧乃至非洲各地的经济、地缘政治产生巨大影响。通过兴建交通基础设施、促进互通互联等措施，该工程旨在刺激广大欠发达地区——如国内陆地区、中国西部，以及中亚“斯坦国”等地区的经济发展。上述区域也是未来几十年内最具发展前景的区域。

具体而言，“一带一路”包括“丝绸之路经济带”和“海上丝绸之路”两条线路，每条线路都覆盖无数条交通走廊，旨在促进中国与欧洲间的跨境联通。这种连通性具体表现在政策协调、基础设施建设（包括铁路及公路）、贸易便利化、金融一体化、国民交流等五个领域。由于基础设施建设在新丝绸之路战略中占据支配性地位，因此，中国与贸易伙伴国间的国际贸易线路将会受到最直接、最明显的影响。另外，海陆丝绸之路沿线地区大多由于基础设施薄弱而面临贸易流通受阻的问题，因此，“一带一路”倡议的另外一个影响将体现在沿线国家贸易量的增长上。

根据中国社会科学院发布的《“一带一路”沿线国家工业化进程报告》显示，“一带一路”沿线将覆盖65个国家、世界总人口的2/3、全球GDP总量的1/3。目前，由于铁路运输成本相对较高，且中亚地区的陆路运输基础设施薄弱，中国60%的贸易（以价值衡量）都是经由海路实现（贸易量所占比重更高）。因此，“一带一路”倡议将对中国的贸易线路、欧亚地区的区域联通性、国际联通性产生重大影响。与此同时，“一带一路”倡议还具有这样一种潜质——它能够在很大程度上重绘世界贸易地图，使中国在国际贸易关系中成为游戏规则的改变者。

基础设施投资对于提高海上联通效率具有至关重要的作用，因而在当前国际贸易线路的格局中，“一带一路”倡议必将极为有效地促进贸易增长。诚然，基础设施投资需要具备一定的金融实力，许多国家无法独立承担，但参与“一带一路”工程的金融机构能够促进国际合作和国际伙伴关系的建立，从而克服财力上的限制。同时，国际合作能够出台种种奖励机制，诱导船运公司为盈利状况欠佳的区域提供货运服务。

“一带一路”沿线国家的贸易增长主要通过两个途径来实现。第一，对于关系紧密的贸易伙伴国，可以在原有的贸易关系基础上，扩大贸易范围，降低运输成本，减少贸易阻碍。尽管许多人士曾针对“一带一路”对于贸易的影响做出种种估计，但此类评估终非易事，因为最重要的影响取决于——贸易线路要从当前处于支配地位的海运转向铁路运输。第二，开辟新的贸易线路有助于发掘潜在的贸易机会、建立新的贸易伙伴关系，对中亚地区的“斯坦国”而言尤其如此。该区各国市场前景广阔，具有强劲的增长潜力，且与中国和欧洲的贸易。

The likely Impact of Belt and Road on International Trade[32]

Alessia Amighini /Italy

Associate Professor of Economics /Senior Associate Research Fellow at the Italian Institute for International Political Studies（ISPI）

The so-called New Silk Roads proposed by Xi Jinping in 2013 is a commitment to ease bottlenecks to cross-border trade by building networks of connectivity along the existing and planned international routes from various regions of China across Central and South Asia to Europe as a terminal point.Under the label of‘One Belt,One Road'（OBOR）,or‘Belt-and-Road Initiative'（BRI）,the project has since become the centrepiece of China's economic diplomacy.

The BRI is much broader in scope than its predecessors,i.e.the ancient Silk Road（s）dating back to the Han Dynasty（206 BC –220 AD）,labelled in that way by German geologist Baron Ferdinand von Richthofen only in the mid-nineteenth century,and the “Go Out”policy introduced by the Chinese government back in the late 1990s.Unlike the old Silk Roads between China and Europe,which included land routes and sea-lanes connecting Xi'an to Rome mainly through southern corridors crossing Iran and Turkey,the Belt and Road project should travel through Central Asia,Russia and Eastern Europe,with the aim to reach the main Northern European port of Rotterdam both from Southern and Central Europe.Unlike the ancient Silk Road,which was largely an unplanned outcome of the trading activities between China and its partner countries,the Belt and Road project is a comprehensive national development strategy designed by the government,with massive international development impact.

As securing commercial ties and flows with important partner countries has always been a major goal of international relations,the Belt and Road project has inspired lively debates in business,policy and scholarly circles all over the world about its impact on current international economic and political affairs.In fact,although trade is a key pillar of the project,the BRI is not just a way of reviving ancient trade links between Asia and Europe,but an ambitious programme with massive economic and geo-political impact on various regions in Asia,Europe and also Africa.By providing transport infrastructure and increasing connectivity,the Belt and Road project aims to stimulate economic development over vast areas of land from the least developed inner and western provinces of China to the so-called STAN countries in Central Asia,the region with the most promising development prospects in the next few decades.

The BRI specifically includes a‘Silk Road Economic Belt' and a‘Maritime Silk Road',both encompassing a number of corridors with the main aim to promote cross-border connectivity between China and Europe.Connectivity covers the five major areas of policy coordination,infrastructure construction（including railways and highways）,trade facilitation,financial integration and people-to-people exchanges.As infrastructure construction is the dominant feature of the New Silk Road,its most evident and direct impact is likely to be on the routes of international trade between China and its trading partners.Moreover,because insufficient infrastructure acts as a major barrier to trade flows precisely along the land routes and sea-lanes where the BRI should develop,an additional impact will be on the volume of trade among the countries covered by the initiative.

According to the Industrialization of the Belt and Road Countries Report published by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,BRI will extend across up to 65 countries,accounting for over nearly two-thirds of the world's population,one-third of global GDP.Currently,60% of China's trade（in value）travels by sea（and a much higher share in volume）,due to the lower transport costs associated with international shipments compared to railway transport and to the lack of infrastructure for land transport across Central Asia.Therefore,the BRI is likely to have major implications on the routes of China's trade to the extent that it will improve regional and international land connectivity across Eurasia.BRI has the potential to significantly alter world trade routes and to become a game changer in international trade relations.

Under the current pattern of international trade routes,the Belt and Road initiative will have major trade-creating effects,to the extent that investment in infrastructure will be vital to increase the efficiency of maritime connectivity.Moreover,international cooperation and partnerships through the financing institutions related to BRI will allow overcoming the difficulties faced by individual countries who are not able to bear alone the financial effort required by infrastructure investment.International cooperation is also required to create incentives for shipping companies to serve destinations that are not profitable（Fugazza,2015）.

Trade creation along the Belt and Road will work through two major channels.On the one hand,one type of trade creating effect will work through the expansion of existing trade ties between pairs of countries that are already important trade partners,through the decrease of transport costs and trade barriers.Although some estimates exist,assessing the impact of BRI on trade is not an easy task because the most important impact will arise from the switch of trade routes from the current predominance of seaborne trade to railway trade.An additional type of trade creating effect will work through new trade routes that will unlock potential trade ties with new trading partners,most notably in the so-called STAN countries in Central Asia,large and growing markets where both China and Europe currently hold good trade relations,which could further improve based on the complementarities of their economic structures.